“If a federated social media is better than the centralized incumbents, it will be because people made a conscious choice to make it better – not because of any technological determinism.”
I think if Twitter continues along its current trajectory, Mastodon and the wider fediverse will grow. Twitter was flawed from the outset. The wider your circle grew the more antagonistic it became. The harder you fought to hold your ground.
The federated landscape fractures that monopoly, both physically and psychologically.